Reports of the 300-Game Winner's Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

With Randy Johnson’s 300th win on Thursday night, sports columns and radio shows are rampart with the speculation that he may be the last 300 game winner for the foreseeable future, if ever. At first glance, they seem correct – 46 year old Jamie Moyer is the next closest with 250 wins. Other prime pitchers seem too old with too few wins: Andy Pettitte (220 wins; 37 years old); Pedro Martinez (214; 37); Roy Halladay (140; 32); Roy Oswalt (131; 31); CC Sabathia (122; 28)

But, when looking at the history of 300 game winners since 1982, when Gaylord Perry became the first to reach the mark in nearly 20 years, hope begins to emerge. Even Andy Pettitte and Pedro Martinez, who may seem near the end of their careers at 37, has more wins than Randy Johnson did at that age, and also more than Phil Niekro.

To be sure, Randy Johnson and Phil Niekro were quite a bit behind the power curve compared to other 300 game winners of the era, but they made it. Their careers also started later than other 300 game winners, perhaps allowing for them to pitch further into their 40s as well. But, when one looks at some of the younger pitchers, there are a few promising candidates. Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt both are on pace with at least 3 other 300 game winners, as are Mark Buehrle, Johan Santana and Barry Zito.

Just from the perspective of wins vs. age, the best candidate is CC Sabathia, who has 122 wins at 28 years of age. That would put him ahead of the pace for Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine, Roger Clemens, Steve Carlton, Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, Phil Niekro and Gaylord Perry. Indeed, the only recent 300 game winners he is not ahead of are Greg Maddux and Tom Seaver.

To be sure, he, and any of the others are still a long way away from the mark, need to stay healthy and need continued success. It may seem like a long shot for any of these pitchers to reach that mark. But it most have seemed like a long shot in 2000 when 36 year old Randy Johnson wrapped up his 13th major league season still more than 20 games short of 200 wins.